{"id":6501,"date":"2025-03-07T08:24:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T07:24:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/?p=6501"},"modified":"2025-03-07T08:24:46","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T07:24:46","slug":"ill-be-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back","title":{"rendered":"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Economy<\/strong>
\u201cI\u2019ll be back\u201d \u2013 Arnold Schwarzenegger became a legend with this quote as the Terminator. The iconic line could also apply to inflation in 2025, which has the potential to make a comeback. So far, the US Federal Reserve has failed to push inflation further towards its 2% target. In January, the core inflation rate (excluding food and energy prices) rose by 0.4% over the previous month \u2013 more than economists had expected and twice as much as in December. As a result, the annual rate climbed to 3.3% and has barely moved since mid-2024. A study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on historical price shocks reveals a worrying pattern: After an initial decline, inflation often tends to flare up again. The IMF economists reached the following conclusion: \u201cInflation fell significantly within the first three years after the initial shock but then stagnated at a high level or accelerated again.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The US economy is currently in precisely this critical phase. The inflation trend is proving to be \u201csticky\u201d \u2013 stubborn and persistent. In the second half of 2024, US economic output grew above its potential rate. Strong economic data, a robust labour market, and stable consumer spending suggest that growth of over 2% is also expected for the current quarter. This economic strength is the main reason for inflation\u2019s continued persistence. Additional price pressure could arise from President Trump\u2019s protectionist policies. His proposed tariffs and immigration restrictions could drive up supply-side costs, while pro-growth measures such as tax cuts and deregulation could further fuel demanddriven inflationary pressures. In an economy already operating at full capacity, such measures are likely to give inflation an additional boost. As a result, inflation remains a key factor that will continue to keep markets on edge this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Equities<\/strong>
Since the election of Donald Trump, the US equity market has struggled to gain momentum after the brief \u201cTrump bump\u201d. Since the start of the year, it has recorded a slight decline, with US equity markets falling well short of the optimistic forecasts made by many financial experts. At the end of 2024, analysts had expected US markets to significantly outperform global markets in 2025 \u2013 but so far, the opposite has been true. Other regions are showing much stronger growth, such as the Swiss equity market, which, with its defensive characteristics, had already gained more than 10% by the end of February, clearly outperforming the US. A key reason for the weak performance of US markets is the president\u2019s unpredictable policies, which are causing uncertainty among investors. Rising inflation fears are also reviving memories of the sharp inflation surge in 2021\u201322 and its impact on equity markets. As long as these uncertainties persist, market conditions are likely to remain volatile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonds<\/strong>
The rise in inflation risks is also reflected in 5-year US inflation expectations, which are calculated from the difference between the yield on 5-year US government bonds and the yield on 5-year inflation-linked US government bonds. Since September 2024, expectations have increased from below 2% to the current level of 2.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In such an environment, inflation-linked bonds can offer a degree of protection, as their principal and coupon payments adjust in line with accumulated inflation. These securities are designed to outperform nominal government bonds when actual inflation exceeds expectations, helping to offset unexpected price pressures. At present, investors still seem to have confidence in central banks\u2019 ability to keep inflation under control, resulting in limited demand for an additional risk premium. This creates an opportunity to build positions in inflation-linked bonds, which can add strategic value to a diversified portfolio in the current climate.

Currencies<\/strong>
After Canada and Mexico, the EU is now also in Donald Trump\u2019s sights. From 1 April 2025, the US president is threatening to impose tariffs of 25% on numerous European goods. However, higher tariffs drive up the cost of imported goods and could further fuel inflation in the US. If Trump fully implements his announcements, significant price increases would be expected. In such a scenario, the US Federal Reserve would face a difficult decision: To keep inflation under control, it would need to maintain high interest rates for longer \u2013 or, in the worst case, even raise them again. The goal behind Trump\u2019s protectionist measures is likely to be reducing US dependence on foreign goods. Fewer imports would lower demand for foreign currencies and strengthen the US dollar. At the same time, a smaller trade deficit \u2013 driven by increased exports and reduced imports \u2013 could further support the greenback. That, at least, is the president\u2019s wishful thinking. In reality, the affected countries are unlikely to accept such measures without retaliation. Counter-tariffs could weigh on American exports while simultaneously pushing up the cost of imported goods. In the long run, an escalating trade conflict would produce no real winners. Instead, the risk of economic disruptions looms, with consequences that are difficult to predict.

Alternative investments<\/strong>
After a period of consolidation, gold resumed its upward trajectory, reaching a new high of USD 2,956 per ounce. This rally is particularly remarkable given that, from a historical perspective, the current market environment is not especially favourable for gold. Riskier asset classes are in high demand, while yields on US government bonds remain elevated \u2013 making gold, which generates no interest income, appear less attractive. Nevertheless, market participants who are not fully convinced by the positive outlook are turning to gold for protection. The precious metal offers a degree of security, particularly amid growing inflation fears. Analysts also recommend gold as a hedge against Trump\u2019s unpredictable policies. Additionally, ongoing concerns about the precarious state of US government debt provide further arguments in favour of gold. Beyond this, gold has solidified its reputation in developing countries as a reliable store of value \u2013 without any real competition. Meanwhile, both the Chinese and Russian central banks are increasing their gold reserves to gradually reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Given these factors, there are currently few arguments against gold. Our momentum indicator also responded at the beginning of February, leading us to build a position in gold at the expense of listed private equity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economy\u201cI\u2019ll be back\u201d \u2013 Arnold Schwarzenegger became a legend with this quote as the Terminator. The iconic line could also apply to inflation in 2025, which has the potential to make a comeback. So far, the US Federal Reserve has failed to push inflation further towards its 2% target. In January, the core inflation rate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-our-opinion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb – Neue Bank<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Pirol Bont\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/009ac983e0c4d03e9f7e48d82909b47c\"},\"headline\":\"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-07T07:24:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-07T07:24:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back\"},\"wordCount\":1008,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/e1-1024x653.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Our Opinion\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back\",\"name\":\"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb – Neue Bank\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/e1-1024x653.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-07T07:24:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-07T07:24:46+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/e1-1024x653.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/e1-1024x653.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/ill-be-back#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/\",\"name\":\"Neue Bank\",\"description\":\"Liechtensteiner Privatbank\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Neue Bank\",\"alternateName\":\"Liechtensteiner Privatbank\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/logo-full.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/logo-full.svg\",\"width\":153,\"height\":50,\"caption\":\"Neue Bank\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/neuebank\",\"https:\\\/\\\/li.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/neue-bank-ag\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/009ac983e0c4d03e9f7e48d82909b47c\",\"name\":\"Pirol Bont\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Pirol Bont\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.neuebank.li\\\/en\\\/author\\\/ab44d269ab8c21bc\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb – Neue Bank","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back"},"author":{"name":"Pirol Bont","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#\/schema\/person\/009ac983e0c4d03e9f7e48d82909b47c"},"headline":"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb","datePublished":"2025-03-07T07:24:45+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-07T07:24:46+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back"},"wordCount":1008,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/e1-1024x653.png","articleSection":["Our Opinion"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back","url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back","name":"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb – Neue Bank","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/e1-1024x653.png","datePublished":"2025-03-07T07:24:45+00:00","dateModified":"2025-03-07T07:24:46+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/e1-1024x653.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/e1-1024x653.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/ill-be-back#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"\u00abI\u2019ll be back\u00bb"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/","name":"Neue Bank","description":"Liechtensteiner Privatbank","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#organization","name":"Neue Bank","alternateName":"Liechtensteiner Privatbank","url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/logo-full.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/wp-content\/uploads\/logo-full.svg","width":153,"height":50,"caption":"Neue Bank"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/neuebank","https:\/\/li.linkedin.com\/company\/neue-bank-ag"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/#\/schema\/person\/009ac983e0c4d03e9f7e48d82909b47c","name":"Pirol Bont","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/697f159d22b8d822ff982d72e8a5706a7211939074b14b0b8af38e58c3710bf9?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Pirol Bont"},"url":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/author\/ab44d269ab8c21bc"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.neuebank.li\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}